Suggested Discussion Outline - April 8

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johnkarls
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Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:43 pm

Suggested Discussion Outline - April 8

Post by johnkarls »

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SUGGESTED DISCUSSION OUTLINE


A. Why do we think we can subjugate Afghanistan if nobody has ever been able to do so throughout history?

A-1. Starting with Alexander the Great

A-2. And culminating most recently with the failure of the Soviet Union in the 1980’s to subjugate Afganistan with more than 200,000 troops.


B. How realistic is the task announced by President Obama?

B-1. Limited duration = 4 years (until his own re-election) – which,human nature being what it is, causes NATO allies to confine their troops to base to avoid casualties and causes The Taliban and Al Qaeda to simply re-calibrate their plans.

B-2. The topography – extremely mountainous with a 1,400-mile border with the Northwest Tribal Area which has been since 9/11 the home of Al Qaeda and which, though technically part of Pakistan, has always been autonomous.

B-3. The Taliban’s “Safe Haven” in the Northwest Tribal Area – in which we never dare to do more than send an occasional drone to assassinate a Taliban or Al Qaeda leader because we are so fearful that the adverse PR will cause the collapse of Pakistan’s central government and bring on an Islamic Fundamentalist Regime similar to the one in Pakistan’s Swat Valley to which the central government ceded control 2 months ago – IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT AN ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME FOR ALL OF PAKISTAN WOULD MEAN THE FIRST ISLAMIC-FUNDAMENTALIST NUCLEAR ARSENAL SINCE PAKISTAN HAS BEEN A NUCLEAR POWER FOR SEVERAL DECADES.

B-4. The Opium Challenge – Afghanistan currently grows 93% of the world’s supply of opium. So a realistic counter-insurgency program would not only have to include the traditional elements of conquer AND HOLD real estate while protecting the population that has been captured – BUT ALSO MAKE THE POPULATION HAPPY (OR AT LEAST NOT SO RESENTFUL THAT THEY COVERTLY ASSIST THE INSURGENTS) WHICH WOULD MEAN PAYING EXHORBITANT PRICES FOR REPLACEMENT CROPS TO PROVIDE THE SAME PROFITABILITY THAT THE OPIUM PRODUCED, AND BUILDING A VAST INFRASTRUCTURE OF HIGHWAYS OR RAILROADS TO TRANSPORT THE CROPS TO WORLD MARKETS, SINCE THE REPLACEMENT CROPS WILL BE MUCH BULKIER THAN OPIUM.


C. If we are constantly exhorted NOT “to take our eye off ‘the ball’” then what is “the ball” – Afghanistan where Al Qaeda used to be located prior to 9/11, or Al Qaeda itself which has been located in The Northwest Tribal Area of Pakistan since 9/11?

C-1. "The Real Afghan Issue Is Pakistan – The President Has His Priorities Reversed" By Graham Allison and John Deutsch (a short OpEd article published 3/30/2009 and posted under “Reference Materials” on our bulletin board = www.ReadingLiberally-SaltLake.org) – Graham Allison is the Founding Dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and the author of a book ("Nuclear Terrorism") on Osama bin Laden's fatwa to nuke 10 million Americans; he also served as Assistant Defense Secretary for Policy and Plans under President Clinton and was the "moving force" on the 2007 Democratic Congress' Commission on Preventing WMD Proliferation and Terrorism -- John Deutsch is a Professor at MIT and served as CIA Director in President Clinton's second term.


D. Using “Human Intelligence” to Infiltrate Al Qaeda and Other Terrorist
Organizations

D-1. The “elephant in the room” that nobody wants to discuss.

D-2. Whether we can rely on “human intelligence” to provide sufficient infiltration of terrorist organizations in the wake of President Clinton’s Executive Order in 1996 banning the use as spies of anyone who had committed violent illegal acts – causing his first-term CIA Director R. James Woolsey Jr. to “resign as a matter of principle” because terrorist organizations will not trust a new member until s/he has committed violent illegal acts specified by the terrorist organization.

D-3. Does the participation of Woolsey’s successor, John Deutsch, in the OpEd article described in C-1 which recommends conventional pressure on The Northwest Tribal Area of Pakistan imply that John Deutsch knows our “human intelligence” capabilities have not recovered sufficiently from President Clinton disastrous decision that we can rely on our ability to infiltrate Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations?

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