Pres Obama Mulling Increasing Surge to 31,000 - 70,000 Total

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Press here to view, among other things --

(1) The text of the Newsweek cover story for February 9, 2009 entitled "Obama's Vietnam"

(2) The NY Times 2/16/2009 story = "Pakistan Grants Autonomy to Swat Valley"

(3) Defense Secretary Gates on Pakistan "Safe Havens" for The Taliban and Al Qaeda Pivotal in Afgahnistan War

(4) President Obama's Official New Policy Announced March 27th per WhiteHouse.com

(5) "The Real Afghan Issue Is Pakistan – The President Has His Priorities Reversed" By Graham Allison and John Deutsch -- Graham Allison is the Founding Dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and the author of a book ("Nuclear Terrorism") on Osama bin Laden's fatwa to nuke 10 million Americans; he also served as Assistant Defense Secretary for Policy and Plans under President Clinton and was the "moving force" on the 2007 Democratic Congress' Commission on Preventing WMD Proliferation and Terrorism -- John Deutsch is a Professor at MIT and served as CIA Director in President Clinton's second term.

(6) News report that President Obama is mulling increasing his already-announced "surge" of 21,000 additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan by another 10,000 U.S. troops, for a total of 70,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
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johnkarls
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Pres Obama Mulling Increasing Surge to 31,000 - 70,000 Total

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U.S. Weighs Putting 70,000 Troops in Afghanistan
By YOCHI J. DREAZEN
Wall Street Journal – April 2, 2009 – Page A8

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Reading Liberally Editorial Note –

There may be a slight error in this article. Everything I have seen indicates that when President Obama announced his “surge” in Afghanistan, he was doubling the number of American troops from 17,000 to 34,000. The 21,000 figure in this article include an additional 4,000 troops President Obama ordered deployed for the purpose of training Afghan military forces.

This article is discussing President Obama’s mulling whether to increase the American “surge” in Afghanistan by an additional 10,000 troops. I am guessing that “the hand” is “writing on the wall” vis-à-vis this as a requirement because European countries are withdrawing their troops. In addition, human nature being what it is, when President Obama announced that the War in Afghanistan is not “open ended” and must be brought to a conclusion within four years – (1) both Afghans and the Pashtuns of the Pakistani Tribal Areas can be expected to immediately calibrate their plans to an American pull-out within four years, and (2) European allies can be expected to question the purpose of the whole exercise and begin hunkering down (like the British did in Southern Iraq when “the hand” began “writing on the wall” there following which the Brits confined their troops to a British airbase in Southern Iraq for a couple of years before withdrawing them entirely).
The reason for noting that there may be a slight error in this article is that it states that when President Obama took office, the U.S. had about 38,000 troops in Afghanistan, rather than the 17,000 reported elsewhere. The difference may be the inclusion of European troops in the total but (1) the author of the article correctly reports the additional 17,000 President Obama’s original “surge” announcement and correctly reports the additional 4,000 for training Afghan military forces, and (2) the author adds these two numbers plus the additional 10,000 troops President Obama is mulling TO THE ORIGINALLY-CLAIMED FIGURE OF 38,000 to produce the new project total of 70,000 American troops.

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WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama is weighing whether to deploy 10,000 more troops to Afghanistan but lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are questioning an increased commitment and seeking specific measures of progress against the deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

When President Obama took office, the U.S. had about 38,000 troops in Afghanistan. The White House has announced plans to send 21,000 reinforcements in coming months, increasing the tally to almost 60,000.

Mr. Obama will decide this fall whether to order 10,000 more troops to Afghanistan next year, senior Pentagon officials told a Senate panel Wednesday, bringing the total to almost 70,000.

Lawmakers sought benchmarks on U.S. efforts in the area. "How will we know if we're winning?" asked Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine).

The hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee came days after the Obama administration rolled out its new strategy for Afghanistan. The strategy is designed to counter the Taliban's resurgence as an effective fighting force capable of exerting day-to-day control over many rural parts of the country.

The White House plan calls for deploying 4,000 troops and hundreds of civilian officials, expanding U.S. counternarcotics efforts in southern Afghanistan, and giving billions of dollars in development aid to Pakistan.

Lawmakers from both parties expressed skepticism about Pakistan's willingness -- or ability -- to take effective measures against its militants.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the panel's ranking Republican, faulted Pakistan for striking a peace treaty with Taliban militants in the Swat Valley that allows for the implementation of strict Islamic law there.

Sen. McCain also said the Pakistani government and military need to exert greater control over the country's Inter-Services Intelligence arm, which has long been suspected of providing covert assistance to the Taliban and other Islamist extremists.

Gen. David Petraeus, who runs the military's Central Command, and Michele Flournoy, the Pentagon's undersecretary of defense for policy, said Pakistan hadn't yet fully committed to the counterterrorism fight.

"Many Pakistani leaders remain focused on India as Pakistan's principal threat, and some may even continue to regard Islamist extremist groups as a potential strategic asset," Gen. Petraeus said.

The Pentagon officials said they think their new strategy is the best way to stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Gen. Petraeus said the Afghan Taliban are "growing in strength" and expanding their influence over portions of the country. Militants in Pakistan pose a serious risk to that country's survival, he added.

"The Pakistani state faces a rising -- indeed, an existential -- threat," he said. "In Afghanistan, the situation is deteriorating."

In a reminder of the Taliban's resurgence, militants from the group assaulted a government office in the southern city of Kandahar, killing at least 13 people.

The attack began when a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb at the gates to a provincial council building, clearing the way for a trio of heavily armed militants in Afghan army uniforms to storm the compound. The fourmilitants also died in the assault.

A senior Pentagon official said in an interview that commanders in Afghanistan want to deploy the 10,000 additional forces to southern Afghanistan, a Taliban stronghold that is also one of the largest drug-producing regions in the world. The extra forces would provide an additional brigade of combat troops as well as a new American division headquarters in southern Afghanistan, the official said.

—Peter Spiegel contributed to this article.
Write to Yochi J. Dreazen at yochi.dreazen@wsj.com

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