12/31/2017 article in Forbes by Prof. Babones

.
Ordinarily, we include in this section of the bulletin-board book reviews from The New York Times, The Washington Post (and the Wall Street Journal if our focus book is economically oriented, and from one or two British newspapers if it is internationally oriented).

American Tianxia by Prof. Babones was NOT reviewed by any of these publications, nor in precious few other publications as implied by the paucity of review comments in the “Original Proposal” section of this bulletin board.

However, there are posted in this section one book review and, in chronological order, three articles on the topic by Prof. Babones himself --

(1) Book Review for Aspen Review by a Polish author of “The Bear Overshadowed by Dragon: Russia-China 1991-2014” (soon to be published in English), three books on Burma/Myanmar, and Russia and China: A Political Marriage of Convenience – Stable and Successful (Budrich 2017).

(2) A 6/22/2017 article in Foreign Affairs Magazine by Prof. Babones – “American Tianxia: When Chinese Philosophy Meets American Power” – NB: This was three months before publication of our focus book.

(3) A 12/31/2017 article in Forbes by Prof Babones – “Has China Hit Its Peak? How Demography, Economics & Geography Will Limit China's Growing Power In 2018.”

(4) A 1/25/2018 article in The Washington Post by Prof. Babones – “America has little to fear from a China-centered world.”

**********
First Dept of Defense “National Defense Strategy” In More Than A Decade (released 1/19/2018)

The foregoing materials and our focus book should comprise interesting reference materials to read in connection with the first Defense Dept “National Defense Strategy” to be released in more than a decade.

It posits that China and Russia “are the main U.S. adversaries” with North Korea, Iran and terrorism taking a back seat.

Accordingly, there is also posted in this section --

(5) The Dept of Defense 1/19/2018 press release about the National Defense Strategy, following which is available for download an Adobe.pdf file containing the 11-page unclassified Official Summary of the National Defense Strategy.
Post Reply
johnkarls
Posts: 2034
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:43 pm

12/31/2017 article in Forbes by Prof. Babones

Post by johnkarls »

.
http://www.forbes.com – 12/31/2017


Has China Hit Its Peak? How Demography, Economics & Geography Will Limit China's Growing Power In 2018
By Salvatore Babones


To the extent that China's economy really is hitting Ning's targets, it is entirely due to credit expansion: i.e., rising debt. That bubble may never burst, since most of China's bad loans are debts owed by state-owned enterprises to state-owned banks. Still, although China can prevent a bust, it can't expand credit forever. And as the moribund state sector soaks up more and more of the country's resources, it becomes an ever heavier drag on the rest of the economy.

The part of China's economy that really is booming is the high-tech, foreign-investment-driven private sector economy. Here the growth comes from trans-Pacific integration, not government policies. Corporate America's fanciest gadgets may be made in China, but high-tech China's economic growth is overwhelmingly made in America. In the event of any real trouble between the U.S. and China, these crucial American investments would move elsewhere. Apple won't be making iPhones in a country at war with the United States.

The curse of the Middle Kingdom

The very word for China in Chinese, Zhongguo, means "Central State" (or "Middle Kingdom"), and China truly is the central state of East Asia. Back when East Asia was China's whole world, or tianxia, that central position was an advantage: surrounded by many smaller, weaker countries, China could consistently call the shots. But globalization has brought China into a much bigger world, one it can never hope to control.

If East Asia were the whole world, today's China could easily bully peripheral countries like Japan and South Korea into doing its bidding. But the American power standing behind these countries puts China in a much tougher neighborhood. Having Russia for a neighbor doesn't help either. China is surrounded by powerful neighbors that have even more powerful allies.

China has three nuclear-armed neighbors, with American nuclear submarines always lurking off its coasts. China also has to deal with unstable neighbors like Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Myanmar, not to mention the crazy regime in North Korea. China may have the world's largest army, but its neighbors have the world's second, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and ninth largest armies -- and the U.S. is third. Centrality never looked so bad.

China Max

In 2018, we are rapidly approaching "China Max," if we haven't reached it already. In the 2020s and beyond, China will be shrinking in population, dependent on the U.S. for economic growth, and ringed in by wary if not hostile neighbors. It will be in no shape to challenge the United States, never mind take over the world.

Chinese military planners are well-aware of this, and mostly limit their ambitions to regaining dominance of their own coastal waters. This they may achieve. But that would hardly pose a threat to the security of the United States -- or the world. China needs peace as much as the rest of us, and probably more. In 2018, let's hope they get it, and the rest of us too.

Post Reply

Return to “Reference Materials - “American Tianxia: Chinese Money, American Power and the End of History” by Prof. Salvatore Babones - March 14”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests